Does the Maldives have the capability to handle the growing tourist demand while facing the difficulties of global warming? / Ahmed Naseer

Abstract

Tourism heavily relies on climate and natural environment as a resource, but is highly climate sensitive. Similarly, Maldives is heavily relying on tourism industry as main source of income. Evidence has shown that a certain amount climate change has occurred and Maldives is experiencing it today. Maldives considered as one of the most vulnerable region in the world to the effects of climate change. The average height of the islands in the country is 1.5 meters (feet) above sea level. Therefore, height of the islands and coastline increases the vulnerability of the country. In addition, over reliance of a lean natural resources has for tourism puts the tourism industry into increasing risk. Documentation of vulnerability and adaptation of Maldives islands and more so tourism to climate change is limited. Different shareholders agree that there is need to improve response initiatives geared towards mitigation and adaptation to climate change. This study seeks to assist Maldives government, tourism and other stakeholders reduce vulnerability and improve adaptation efforts. To facilitate this, a critical review of relevant literature was undertaken and a comprehensive countrywide bottom-up approach assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of tourism sector to climate change was carried out. This was done by exploring the impacts of climate change on the tourism industry from both supply and demand side, and estimating the vulnerability level using from explanatory sequential design. A total of 20 tourists' accommodation managers, 78 tourists filled questionnaires whose results were verified by 10 experts. Results generally indicated that climate change impacts are currently affecting the tourism industry in the Maldives and that the supply side is more affected by these impacts than demand side. Sensitivity of tourism to climate change depends on the type of indicators, such as source market, the purpose of travel. The exposure depends on the type of climate change indicators such as nature of occurrence of indicators. Moreover, although the industry has put commendable efforts towards the adaptations and the sector is faced by several challenges such as lack of information and funds. Generally, the tourism industry in the Maldives is found to be highly sensitive, highly exposed with moderate adaptive capacity. Therefore, the industry is highly vulnerable. Finally, this study found, the Maldives tourism industry has the capacity to cater to increasing demand while facing global warming. Further research is suggested on the implications of climate change policies on tourism operators and the economic impacts of climate change on Maldives tourism industry and its resources.