Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts / Annie Duke

Contents Include:

Chapter 1: Life is poker, not chess

Pete Carroll and the morning quarterbacks
The hazards of resulting
Quick or dead: our brains weren't built for rationality
Two-minute warning
Dr. Strangelove
Poker vs. chess
A lethal battle of wits
"I'm not sure": using uncertainty to our advantage
Redefining wrong

Chapter 2: Wanna bet?

Thirty days in Des Moines
We've all been to Des Moines
All decisions are bets
Most bets are bets against ourselves
Our bets are only as good as our beliefs
Hearing is believing
"They saw a game"
The stubbornness of beliefs
Being smart makes it worse
Wanna bet?
Redifining confidence

Chapter 3: Bet to learn: fielding the unfolding future
Nick the greek , and other reasons from the crystal lounge
Outcomes are feedback
Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes
Working backward is hard: the SnaWell's Phenomenon
"If it weren'r for luck, I'd win everyone"
All- or nothing thinking rears its head again
People watching
Other people's outcomes reflect on us
Reshaping habit
"Wanna bet?" redux
The hardway

Chapter 4: The buddy system

"Maybe you're the problem, do you think?"
The red pill or the blue pill?
Not all groups are created equal
The group rewards focus on accuracy
"One hundred white castles . . . and a large chocolate shake? how accountability imopoves decision-making
The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints
Federal judges: drift happens
Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and heterodox academy
Wanna bet (on science)?

Chapter 5: Dissent to win

CUDOS to magician
Mertonian communism: more is more
Universalism: don't shoot the message
Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it's contagious
Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends
Communicating with the world beyond our group

Chapter 6: Adventures in mental time travel

Let Marty McFLY run into MaRTY McFly
Night Jerry
Moving regret in front of our decisions
A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens
"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?"
Tilt
Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit
Decision swear jar
Reconnaissance: mapping the future
Scenario planning in practice
Backcasting: working backward from a positive future
Premortems: working backward from a negative future
Dendrologyand hindsight bias (or, give the chainsaw a rest)

Includes bibliographical references and index.